Abstract
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Brief review of ad hoc age estimates for
Polynesian colonization
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A
rchaeol. Oceania 46 (2011) 130–138
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A model-based age estimate for Polynesian colonization of Hawai‘i
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)FCA=B9BH9L5AD@9GC:H<=G5DDFC57<=B7@I89IFB9Met al
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9GD97=5@@MIG9:I@F9GI@HGCBH<9RK5)@5=BC:(R5<I"G@5B8
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F9DF9G9BHG 5 G<CFH =BH9FJ5@ C: H=A9 5B8 9L75J5H=CBG =B
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Q H<9BG et al   B  ,<9 AC89@65G98
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Advantages of a model-based approach
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8C9GBSH H9GH H<9 AC89@ =B 5BM A95B=B;:I@ G9BG9 *5H<9F
5M9G=5B75@=6F5H=CBH5?9GH<9AC89@5G5;=J9BG9HC::57HG
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=B:CFA5H=CB =G DFCD9F@M :=H =BHC 5 F95GCB56@9 AC89@ H<9
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H<9F979BH5FH=7@96M/=@AG<IFGHet al
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DCH9BH=5@ 9FFCF 9; :FCA =B6I=@H 5;9 8=9H5FM CF
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A9H<C8I7?et al
A Bayesian estimate of Polynesian colonization
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DF9
F9GD97H=J9@M5B8H<969;=BB=B;
5B89B8C:H<9DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C8@=?9K=G9F9DF9G9BH98
6M U
DCGH
5B8 V
DCGH
 H<9B H<9 AC89@ 75B 69 GIAA5F=N98 5G
:C@@CKG
OU
DF9
V
DF9
U
DCGH
V
DCGH
 
K<9F9A95BG R=GC@89FH<5BS 5B8BIA69FG 9LDF9GGM95FG
69:CF9DF9G9BH,<9D5F5A9H9FGC:=BH9F9GH=BH<=GAC89@5F9
V
DF9
5B8 U
DCGH
 K<=7< H<9 AC89@ =B8=75H9G 5F9 9EI5@ H<9
7C@CB=N5H=CB 9J9BH G=AI@H5B9CIG@M 9B898 H<9 DF9
7C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C85B869;5BH<9DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C8
,<9CH<9FHKCD5F5A9H9FG5F9 ?BCKB,<9 A5=B !5K5==5B
"G@5B8G5F9;9C@C;=75@@MMCIB;QAM56IHAI7<C@89F
H<5BH<99::97H=J9F5B;9C:H<9

A9H<C8,<95;9C:U
DF9
=G
9GG9BH=5@@M =B:=B=H9 %=?9K=G9 V
D
CGH
 H<9 9B8 C: H<9 DCGH
7C@CB=N5H=CB D9F=C8 =G  ) K<=7< 6M 7CBJ9BH=CB =B

85H=B;=G+HI=J9F5B8)C@57<

85H=B;A5H9F=5@:FCADF97C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C889DCG=HG
=
G F5F9@M =: 9J9F 7C@@97H98 8IF=B; 5F7<59C@C;=75@
9L75J5H=CBG"B D5FH H<=G =G 8I9 H<9 B5HIF9C:H<9 RGH9F=@9S
K<=7< =B A5BM 75G9G =G 5 A=B9F5@ GI6GC=@ H<5H @57?G
A
57FCG7CD=7CF;5B=7=B7@IG=CBG"BCH<9FG=HI5H=CBGGI7<5G
7
5@75F9CIG 6957< G5B8 89DCG=HG H<9F9 =G 56IB85BH CF;5B=7
A5H9F=5@ 6IH =H =G BCH DCGG=6@9 HC F9@5H9 =HG 5;9 HC H<9
CJ9F@M=B; 7I@HIF5@ 89DCG=H CF HC H<9 7C@CB=N5H=CB 9J9BH "B
75J9GCFG=B?<C@9GK<9F9B5HIF5@89DCG=H=CBDFC79GG9G@5=8
8CKB CF;5B=7 A5H9F=5@G 69:CF9 H<9 CBG9H C: 7I@HIF5@
89DCG=H=CB =H =G GCA9H=A9G DCGG=6@9 HC 8=GH=B;I=G< DF9
7C@CB=N5H=CB 89DCG=HG :FCA B5HIF5@ DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CB
89DCG=HG65G98CB7<5B;9G=B:@CF5@5B8:5IB5@A5H9F=5@G5B8
H<9 56G9B79 C: =BHFC8I798 H5L5 =B @CK9F @9J9@G C: H<9
9L75J5H=CBG IFB9M et al  &=L=B; C: 89DCG=HG =G 5
D9FJ5G=J9DFC6@9A=BA5BMG=B?<C@9G<CK9J9F H<9BGet
al  "B 7CBHF5GH D5@9C9BJ=FCBA9BH5@ 7CF=B; CB H<9
C@89FBCFH<9FB=G@5B8GC:(R5<I5B8$5I5R=<5G7CBG=GH9BH@M
F9J95@98 5 D5HH9FB C: G98=A9BHG K=H< 7<5F7C5@ CJ9F@M=B;
G98=A9BHGH<5H@57?7<5F7C5@,<97<5F7C5@=BH<9G97CF9G<5G
699B5HHF=6IH98HC<IA5B57H=J=H=9G6975IG9=H=G5F;I98H<9
HKC 75IG9G C: B5HIF5@ :=F9G Q JC@75B=GA 5B8 @=;<HB=B;
GHF=?9G Q K9F9 9=H<9F 56G9BH CF 9LHF9A9@M F5F9 CB H<9
BCFH<9FB =G@5B8G (F;5B=7 A5H9F=5@ :FCA H<9 7<5F7C5@:F99
@CK9F@5M9FGC:G9J9F5@D5@9C9BJ=FCBA9BH5@7CF9G<5G699B
85H98 K=H< F9GI@HG H<5H 5F9 C@89F H<5B H<9 C@89GH 85H98
A5H9F=5@G:FCA5F7<59C@C;=75@89DCG=HG)5@9C9BJ=FCBA9BH5@
7CF=B;=BJ9GH=;5H=CBGCB(R5<I"G@5B85H(F8M)CB8M=9@898
5:=B9@M 8=J=898 GHF5H=;F5D<=7DFC:=@9K=H< CF;5B=7A5H9F=5@
:FCA57<5F7C5@:F99GHF5HIAB95FH<96CIB85FMA5F?=B;H<9
CBG9HC:7<5F7C5@89DCG=H=CBH<9BGet al,<985H9
CB 5B IB=89BH=:=98 G998 9H5 =G H<9 MCIB;9GH

85H9:FCA5DF97C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C889DCG=H,56@9

 85H9G :FCA H<9 DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CB D9F=C8 5F9 5@@ CB
A5H9F=5@G69@=9J98HC<5J9699B=BHFC8I798HCH<9=G@5B8G6M
)C@MB9G=5BG,56@9,<9

85H9G7<CG9B:CF5B5@MG=G5F9
H<9 C@89GH ?BCKB :CF 957< C: H<9 85H98 A5H9F=5@G ,<9G9
=B7@I89 5 6CB9 C: H<9 )C@MB9G=5B F5H Rattus exulans 5
BIHG<9@@ C: H<9 kukui HF99 Aleurites moluccana 5 7<5FF98
:F5;A9BH C: 5 H9BH5H=J9@M =89BH=:=98 GK99H DCH5HC HI69F
Ipomoea batatas KCC8 7<5F7C5@ =89BH=:=98 5G 6F958:FI=H

Lab. No. CRA θ Material Source
Pre-colonization
9H5 P  G998 H<9BGet al
Post-colonization
9H5 P  cf. Ipomoea batatas %589:C;98et al
'(+&+ P  Artocarpus altilis &7CMet al
9H56 P  Aleurites moluccana ,I;;@95B8+DF=;;G
9H5 P  Lagenaria siceraria /=@@=5AG
9H5 P  Cordyline fruticosa &7CM5B8 F5J9G
&+ P  Rattus exulans H<9BGet al
,56@9

85H9G:CFH<9DF95B8DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C8G
Artocarpus altilis 5 D=979 C: ;CIF8 Lagenaria siceraria
5B8 KCC8 7<5F7C5@ =89BH=:=98 5G kī Cordyline fruticosa
5FF=B;H<9F5H<9F IB@=?9@M DCGG=6=@=HM H<5H CB9 CF ACF9 C:
H
<9G9 85H98 A5H9F=5@G K5G 6FCI;<H HC !5K5=R= :FCA H<9
<CA9@5B86MH<9:=FGH7C@CB=GHG H<9M 75BBCH 69 C@89F H<5B
H<9 7C@CB=N5H=CB 9J9BH 6975IG9 H<9M K9F9 IB?BCKB =B
!5K5=R= 8IF=B; H<9 DF97C@CB=N5H=CB D9F=C8 ,<9M 75B 69
7CB:=89BH@M 5GG=;B98 HC H<9 DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CB D9F=C8
F
9;5F8@9GG C: H<9 5F7<59C@C;=75@ 7CBH9LHG :FCA K<=7< H<9M
89F=J98
B5@MG9G C: AH' =B8=75H9 H<5H H<9 6CB9G C:
7CAA9BG5@5B=A5@G75B69 IG98HC HF579<IA5BA=;F5H=CB
D5HH9FBG=BH<9)57=:=7&5H=GCC+A=H<et al&5H=GCC
+A=H<975IG9F5HGAI@H=D@MF5D=8@MCB79=BHFC8I798
HC5B=G@5B8H<9MDFCJ=895J=G=6@95F7<59C@C;=75@G=;B5@C:
7C@CB=N5H=CB F7<59C@C;=GHG <5J9 89ACBGHF5H98 H<5H
85H9GCBF5H6CB9G75BG9FJ95G5B9::97H=J9DFCLM:CFH<95;9
C: H<9 7C@CB=N5H=CB 9J9BH /=@AG<IFGH et al  "B
!5K5=R=F5HG=BHFC8I7986MH<9:=FGH)C@MB9G=5B7C@CB=GHG5F9
69@=9J98F9GDCBG=6@9:CFA5BMC:H<99BJ=FCBA9BH5@7<5B;9G
H<5H7<5F57H9F=N9H<995F@MDCGH7C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C8H<9BG
et al  ,<9F9 5F9 G9J9F5@ C@8 F5H 6CB9 85H9G :FCA
G=B?<C@9G CB H<9 RK5 )@5=B ,<9 C@89GH C:H<9G9 &+
K5G7C@@97H98:FCA+=H9H<9BGet al
5B8K5GDF9HF95H98DF=CFHC85H=B;IG=B;H<90F9G=B
DFC79GG=B;DFCHC7C@+H5::CF8et alDD5F9BH@MH<9F9
K5GBC7CBHFC@:CFH<9DCGG=6@99::97HGC:8=9H5FMIDH5?9C:
75F6CB89D@9H98=B

5GKCI@869H<975G9=:H<9F9K9F95
A5F=B97CADCB9BHHCH<9F5H8=9H95J5B5B8+D5F?G
@H<CI;</=@AG<IFGHet al:CIB8BC9J=89B79
:CF5A5F=B97CADCB9BH=BH<98=9HC:F5H6CB9G5B5@MN98
:FCA'9K295@5B8*=7<5F8Get al89H97H985A5F=B9
=B:@I9B79 CB H<9 8=9H C: F5HG 5H H<9 !5B5A=5= G=H9 ,<9
DCGG=6=@=HMH<5HGI7<5B9::97H=GDF9G9BH=BH<985H986CB9G
:FCAH<9RK5)@5=B75BSH698=G7CIBH98,<IGH<9

5;9
9GH=A5H9 :CF &+ 5@CB; K=H< H<9 CH<9F

 5;9
9GH=A5H9GCBF5H6CB9A=;<H69C@89FH<5BH<9=FHFI95;9G":
DF9G9BH<CK9J9FH<9 8=G>IB7H=CBG 5F9 BCH ;F95H 9BCI;< HC
M=9@8 =AD@5IG=6@M C@8 5;9 9GH=A5H9G 5@@ C: H<9

 5;9
9GH=A5H9G CB F5H 6CB9 5F9 @=?9@M MCIB;9F H<5B H<9 C@89GH
85H98kukui BIHG<9@@
'IHG<9@@G C: H<9 kukui HF99 Aleurites moluccana 5F9 5
7CAACB 7CADCB9BH C: 5F7<59C@C;=75@ G=H9G HMD=75@@M 5G
F958=@M =89BH=:=56@9 7<5FF98 :F5;A9BHG "BHFC8I798 HC H<9
=G@5B8G 6M )C@MB9G=5B 7C@CB=GHG H<9 HF99 =G BCK R5
7CBGD=7ICIG7CADCB9BHC:A9G=7J5@@9MJ9;9H5H=CBQ
ACB5@@C:H<9A5=B=G@5B8G9L79DH$5<CRC@5K9S/5;B9F
et al  "HGDF9G9B79=B GA5@@<5B;=B;J5@@9MG C:
7@=:: :579G K<9F9 H<9 BIHG 7CI@8 BCH <5J9 8=GD9FG98
B5HIF5@@M GI;;9GHG H<5H H<9 BIHG K9F9 RGCKBS 8IF=B;
HF58=H=CB5@!5K5==5BH=A9G2=9;@9F&CGHC:H<9

 85H9G CB kukui BIHG<9@@ 5F9 F9@5H=J9@M F979BH 6IH CB9
9H56:FCA%5M9F""C:H<99@@CKGIB9+=H9(
M95B8)5BH5@9C,I;;@95B8+DF=;;G=GH<9
C@89GH85H98)C@MB9G=5B=BHFC8I7H=CB"HK5GF97CJ9F98:FCA
H<9IDD9F7I@HIF5@@5M9FC:H<9G=H95B8K5GQM95FG
C@8K<9B=HK5G89DCG=H98M95B8)5BH5@9C
,<9 GK99H DCH5HC K5G =BHFC8I798 HC )C@MB9G=5 :FCA
A9F=75 19B  DFC656@M =B H<9 9@9J9BH< HC HK9@:H<
79BHIF=9G   F99B  "H K5G @=?9@M 5 G97CB85FM
=BHFC8I7H=CB HC !5K5=R= !CAACB  &5H9F=5@
=
89BH=:=985G75F6CB=N98 GK99HDCH5HCHI69F=GC775G=CB5@@M
F97CJ9F98:FCA5F7<59C@C;=75@G=H9G=B!5K5=R=,KCD=979G
<5J9699B85H98%589:C;98et al,<985H98G5AD@9
IG98=BH<=G5B5@MG=G9H5H<9C@89FC:H<9HKCK5G
7C@@97H98 :FCA 5 HF9B7< B95F H<9 G95K5F8 98;9 C: H<9
%
99K5F8$C<5@5=9@8+MGH9A=BH<9@5B8C:$5<I5,<9
G5AD@9K5GH9BH5H=J9@M=89BH=:=985GGK99HDCH5HC8I9HC=HG
GA5@@G=N95B8@57?C:8=5;BCGH=77<5F57H9FG
77CF8=B; HC !5K5==5B HF58=H=CB 6F958:FI=H K5G 5@GC 5
G97CB85FM =BHFC8I7H=CB HC H<9 =G@5B8G 5:H9F H<9 :CIFH99BH<
79BHIFM  !5B8M 5B8 !5B8M  Q ,<9
!5K5==5B 6F958:FI=H @=?9 CH<9F 6F958:FI=H 7I@H=J5FG =B
95GH9FB)C@MB9G=5=GG998@9GG5B8=GDFCD5;5H98J9;9H5H=J9@M
29F9;5 et al  "H <5G BCH 697CA9 B5HIF5@=N98 =B
!5K5=R=/5;B9Fet al"HK5GD@5BH98=B;FCJ9G
=BH<9$CB5=9@8+MGH9A@@9B6IH9@G9K<9F9
D@5BH=B;GH9B898HC69GC@=H5FMF958:FI=H=GBCHG<CFH@=J98
GC=H=GF5F9@M 85H98 =B 5F7<59C@C;=75@ G=HI5H=CBG K<9F9 H<9
85H989J9BHAIGH697@CG9@M5GGC7=5H98K=H<H<9H5F;9H9J9BH
,<9 G5AD@9 =B7@I898 =B H<=G 5B5@MG=G '(+&+
K5G7C@@97H98:FCA5B=FF=;5H98DCB8:=9@8G98=A9BHC:%5M9F
.5H+=H9=B!5@5K5<IDI5R5'CFH<$C<5@5&7CM
et al"BH<=G7CBH9LHH<9G5AD@9DFC656@MF9DF9G9BHG
G97CB85FM 89DCG=H=CB C: C@89F A5H9F=5@ 6FCI;<H =BHC H<9
DCB8:=9@8 K=H< =FF=;5H=CB K5H9F @@9B  "H =G H<IG
GCA9K<5H DFC6@9A5H=7 :CF 85H=B; H<9 IG9 C: H<9 DCB8:=9@8
G98=A9BH =B %5M9F . 6IH H<9 =89BH=:=75H=CB 5G A. altilis
9BGIF9GH<5H=H69@CB;GHCH<9DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C85B8=G
H<IGIG9:I@:CFH<95B5@MG=G5H<5B8
,<9 6CHH@9 ;CIF8 Lagenaria siceraria 5DD95FG HC <5J9
699B=BHFC8I798 HC5GH9FB)C@MB9G=5 :FCA+CIH<A9F=75
5@CB; K=H< H<9 GK99H DCH5HC =B H<9 9@9J9BH< CF HK9@:H<
79BHIFM F99B"HKCI@8H<IG@=?9@M<5J9699B5
G97CB85FM=BHFC8I7H=CBHC!5K5=R=-B7<5FF98D=979GC:H<9
;CIF85F9GCA9H=A9GF97CJ9F98:FCA8FM7CBH9LHGK=H<;CC8
DF9G9FJ5H=CB ,<9 G5AD@9 9H5 7CBG=GH98 C:
IB7<5FF98;CIF8:F5;A9BHGF97CJ9F98:FCAH<9:@CCFC:75J9
+=H9 QQQ 5H )C<5?I@C5 /=@@=5AG  =;
55<=;<5@H=HI8989G9FHIG98HF58=H=CB5@@M6M6=F8<IBH9FG
H<9BG et al +=H9  <58 5 GD5FG9 89DCG=H H<9
CB@M A5H9F=5@ 7C@@97H98 5DD95FG HC <5J9 699B H<9 ;CIF8
:F5;A9BHG
,<9 kī Cordyline terminalis =G 5 G<FI6 H<5H K5G
HF5BGDCFH98K=89@M=BDF9<=GHCFM/5;B9Fet al
,<9 ;F99B@95J98 J5F=9HM HF5BGDCFH98 HC 5GH9FB )C@MB9G=5
5B8 !5K5=R= 6M )C@MB9G=5BG =G GH9F=@9 D9F<5DG 5 F9GI@H C:
7I@HIF5@ G9@97H=CB =B /9GH9FB )C@MB9G=5 :CF R=ADFCJ98
DCFH56=@=HM F<=NCA9 :@5JCF CF H9LHIF9=B7F95G98 97C@C;=75@
HC@9F5B79CFG=N9CFCH<9F7<5F57H9F=GH=7GH<5HGH9F=@=HM7CI@8
DCH9BH=5@@M 7CB:9FS !=B?@9   ,<9 @95J9G 5F9
GCA9H=A9GF97CJ9F98:FCAD=HCJ9BG5B8H<97<5FF98KCC8
=G C775G=CB5@@M =89BH=:=98 =B H<9 7<5F7C5@ :FCA :=F9G ,<9
G5AD@9 IG98 =B H<=G 5B5@MG=G 9H5 K5G F97CJ9F98
:FCA5B565B8CB98H5FCDCB8:=9@8=B@CK9F!5@5K5'CFH<
$C<5@5&7CM5B8 F5J9G

=J9B H<9 DCGG=6=@=HM H<5H H<9 F5H 6CB9 85H9G :FCA H<9
RK5)@5=B5F9HCCC@88I9HCH<9IB7CBHFC@@989::97HGC:5
A5F=B97CADCB9BH=BH<98=9HH<9AC89@K5G:=FGH75@=6F5H98
K
=H<CIH H<9A H<9 DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CB D9F=C8 F9DF9G9BH98 6M
85H9GCB=BHFC8I798:@CF5,<=GAC89@75BH<9B699LDF9GG98
5G=B,<9AC89@5B885H5K9F975@=6F5H98K=H<H<95@
GC:HK5F9 D57?5;9 I7? et al  ,<9 DCGH9F=CF
DFC656=@=HM C: H<9 7C@CB=N5H=CB 9J9BH U
D
CGH
 <5G 5 
<=;<9GHDCGH9F=CF89BG=HM!)F9;=CBC:Q5B8
5
AC895H=;@9:H
Oα
D
F9
θ
β
D
F9
α
D
CGH
θ
T
β
D
CGH
 
,<9 9GH=A5H9 M=9@898 6M H<9 AC89@ C:  =G F9@5H=J9@M
=ADF97=G9H<9C@89GH 85H9 9H56 CB kukui BIHG<9@@
<5G5GH5B85F889J=5H=CBC:
M95FG5B8H<9B9LHC@89GH
85H9'(+&+ CB 6F958:FI=H 7<5F7C5@=GG9J9F5@
<IB8F98M95FGMCIB;9F,<9:@CF5@9J=89B79:CFH<995F@M9B8
C:H<9DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C8=GH<IGF9@5H=J9@MK95?5B8
H<975@=6F5H=CBDFC8I79G5DCGH9F=CFDFC656=@=HM:CFU
DCGH
H<5H
=GG?9K98HCH<9F=;<H
":H<95;9C:H<995F@=9GHF5H6CB9:FCAH<9RK5)@5=B=G
5779DH98 H<9B H<9 AC89@ 75B 69 9LDF9GG98 5G  ,<9
588=H=CBC:H<995F@=9GHF5H6CB985H9&+:=@@G5
;5D69HK99BH<995F@M85H9CBkukui BIHG<9@@5B8H<9B9LH
C@89GH85H9CB6F958:FI=H/<9B=G75@=6F5H98K=H<5@
H<9DCGH9F=CFDFC656=@=HMC:U
DCGH
<5G5!)F9;=CBC:
QK=H<5AC895H=;F=;<H
Oα
DF9
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DF9
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DCGH
θ
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DCGH
 
Detailed comparison of ad-hoc and
model-based approaches
,<958<C79GH=A5H9C: Q /=@AG<IFGHet al
5 5DD95FG 5@ACGH 79FH5=B@M HC 69 HCC @5H9 ,<9
DFC656=@=HMH<5H=G@5H9FH<5BH<97C@CB=N5H=CB9J9BH
9GH=A5H986M=G5B8:CFH<99GH=A5H9M=9@8986M
=H=G;F95H9FH<5B(B9F95GCB:CFH<=G8=GD5F=HM=GH<958
<C7 A9H<C8 IG98 6M /=@AG<IFGH et al 5 K<=7<
8C9GBSHGD97=:M H<9 F9@5H=CBG<=DG 69HK99B H<9 85H98 9J9BHG
5B8)C@MB9G=5B7C@CB=N5H=CBC:!5K5=R=BCH<9FF95GCB=G
H<9 897=G=CB HC 9L7@I89 :FCA 5B5@MG=G

 85H9G K<CG9
GH5B85F89FFCF=G;F95H9FH<5BH9BD9F79BHC:H<97CBJ9BH=CB5@
F58=C75F6CB5;9(B975GI5@HMC:H<=G897=G=CB=GH<985H9CB
kukui BIHG<9@@ 9H56 K<=7< =G D9F<5DG H<9 C@89GH
85H98 A5H9F=5@ =BHFC8I798 6M )C@MB9G=5BG ?BCKB :FCA
!5K5=R=,<9 58 <C7 A9H<C8 75BBCH G9BG=6@M =BH9FDF9H H<9
@5F;9GH5B85F889J=5H=CBC:H<=G5;989H9FA=B5H=CB

M95FG 5B8 H<9 @CB; 95F@M H5=@ =H KCI@8 7F95H9 :CF H<9
DFC656=@=HM8=GHF=6IH=CBG,<=G<CK9J9F=G5:5=@=B;C:H<958
<C7A9H<C85B8BCHC:H<95;989H9FA=B5H=CBK<=7<75FF=9G
=B:CFA5H=CB56CIH K<9B)C@MB9G=5BG7C@CB=N98 !5K5=R="H
=G IG9:I@ =B H<=G @=;<H HC 7CAD5F9 <CK H<=G 5;9
89H9FA=B5H=CB=G=B7CFDCF5H98=BHCH<95M9G=5B5B5@MG=G
,<9 :=FGH H<=B; HC BCH9 =G H<5H H<9

 5;9 C: H<9 kukui
BIHG<9@@ =G C@89F H<5B H<9 85H98 G998 :FCA H<9 DF9
7C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C889DCG=H=B(F8M)CB8975IG95B8
 6CH< GD97=:M H<5H H<9 DF97C@CB=N5H=CB D9F=C8 =G C@89F
H<5B 5B8 56IHG H<9 DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CB D9F=C8 H<9 5M9G=5B
75@=6F5H=CBK=@@BCH7CBG=89F5G79B5F=C=BK<=7<H<9HFI95;9
C:H<9kukui BIHG<9@@ =GC@89FH<5BH<9HFI95;9C:H<9G998
:FCA (F8M DCB8 ,<9 DF57H=75@ 9::97H C: H<=G 7CBGHF5=BH =G
H<5HH<9DCGH9F=CFDFC656=@=HM:CFθ
K=@@G<=:HHCH<9@9:H5B8
H<5H:CFθ
K=@@G<=:HHCH<9F=;<H,<=G=G=@@IGHF5H98=B=;IF9
K<=7<G<CKGH<9F9GI@HGC:5BIB7CBGHF5=B9875@=6F5H=CBC:
H<9HKC
85H9G=BH<9HCD HKC D5B9@G 5B8 H<9 5M9G=5B
75@=6F5H=CBC:=BH<96CHHCAHKCD5B9@GG75B69G99B
=BH<9:=;IF9H<9DCGH9F=CFDFC656=@=H=9GC:θ
5F9G=A=@5FHC
CB9 5BCH<9F "B 7CBHF5GH H<9 DCGH9F=CF DFC656=@=HM C: θ
7<5B;9G8F5A5H=75@@M,<9DF=A5FMAC89C:=BH<9
IB7CBGHF5=B9875@=6F5H=CBG<=:HG5@ACGHH<F9979BHIF=9GHC
=BH<95M9G=5B75@=6F5H=CB,<9!)F9;=CBC:
H<9IB7CBGHF5=B9875@=6F5H=CB=GQH<9@CB;@9:H
H5=@ C: H<=G 8=GHF=6IH=CB =G 5B5H<9A5 HC H<9 58 <C7
=BH9FDF9H5H=CB,<9!)F9;=CBC:θ
=BH<95M9G=5B
75@=6F5H=CB=GQ5G<=:HC:GCA9:=J979BHIF=9G
,<9F9@5H=J9@MA=BCF7<5B;9G=BH<9DCGH9F=CFDFC656=@=HMC:
θ
7CAD5F98 HC H<CG9 C: θ
5F9 F9@5H98 8=F97H@M HC H<9
GH5B85F89FFCFGC:H<95;9 9GH=A5H9G,<9GH5B85F89FFCFC:
9H5=G

M95FG56CIH5EI5FH9FC:H<9GH5B85F8

=;IF9)CGH9F=CF
DFC656=@=HM:CF
)C@MB9G=5B7C@CB=N5H=CB
C:!5K5=R=@9:H9GH=A5H9
65G98CBK=H<5
<=;<9GHDCGH9F=CF89BG=HM
F9;=CBC:Q
F=;<HDCGH9F=CF
DFC656=@=HM:CF
)C@MB9G=5B7C@CB=N5H=CB
C:!5K5=R=65G98CB
K=H<5<=;<9GH
DCGH9F=CF89BG=HMF9;=CB
C:Q
9FFCF C: H<9 5;9 89H9FA=B5H=CB :CF 9H56 ,<9
5M9G=5B75@=6F5H=CB9LD@C=HGH<9@57?C:7CB:=89B79=BH<9
5;989H9FA=B5H=CBC:9H56HCDFC8I79F9GI@HGH<5H5F9
5F7<59C@C;=75@@M=BH9FDF9H56@9
Other results of the model-based calibration
,<97<FCBC@C;=75@AC89@G89J9@CD98=B5B8IG=B;H<9
5@ GC:HK5F9 D57?5;9 A5?9 =H DCGG=6@9 HC 9GH=A5H9 H<9
9@5DG98 H=A9 69HK99B H<9 7C@CB=N5H=CB 9J9BH 5B8 H<9
5F7<59C@C;=75@ 9J=89B79 :CF H<9 =BHFC8I7H=CB C: H<9 85H98
D@5BHG5B85B=A5@GH<5HK9F9IG985G9J=89B79C:H<9DCGH
7C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C8,56@9G<CKGH<9!)F9;=CB:CF
9GH=A5H9G C: H<9 <=5HIG 69HK99B 7C@CB=N5H=CB 5B8 H<9
=BHFC8I7H=CB C: D@5BHG 5B8 5B=A5@G 65G98 CB  ,<9
=BHFC8I798 A5H9F=5@G :5@@ =BHC HKC ;9B9F5@ 75H9;CF=9G ,<9
95F@M =BHFC8I7H=CBG R. exulans 5B8 A. moluccana 5FF=J98
9=H<9F K=H< H<9 :=FGH 7C@CB=GHG CF GCCB 5:H9F H<9 =B=H=5@
7C@CB=N5H=CB9J9BH"B7CBHF5GH65G98CBDF9G9BH9J=89B79
I. batatasA. altilisL. siceraria5B8C. fruticosa 5@@5FF=J98
@5H9FGCA9H<F99HCG=L79BHIF=9G5:H9FH<97C@CB=N5H=CB9J9BH
Taxon Hiatus (years)
Ipomoea batatas Q
Artocarpus altilis Q
Aleurites moluccana Q
Lagenaria siceraria Q
Cordyline fruticosa Q
Rattus exulans Q
,56@9F7<59C@C;=75@9J=89B79:CF=BHFC8I798
D@5BHG5B85B=A5@G
,<9AC89@GC:5B875B699LH9B898HCA95GIF9H<9
<=5HIG 69HK99B H<9 7C@CB=N5H=CB 9J9BH 5B8 CH<9F
5F7<59C@C;=75@9J9BHGC:=BH9F9GH(B99L5AD@9=GH<9<MDC
H<9G=G :CFAI@5H98 GCA9 M95FG 5;C 6M F5J9G 5B888=GCB
 H<5H H<9F9 K5G @=?9@M HC 69 5 8=GD5F=HM 69HK99B H<9
)C@MB9G=5B8=G7CJ9FMC:!5K5=R=5B8H<995F@=9GH9J=89B79C:
7C@CB=N5H=CBF97CJ9F986M5F7<59C@C;=GHG-G=B;H<9AC89@
65G985M9G=5B75@=6F5H=CB5DF57H=75@H9GHC:H<9<MDCH<9=G
K=H<7IFF9BH85H57CAD5F9GH<95M9G=5B7C@CB=N5H=CB85H9
9GH=A5H9K=H<H<9@=?9@M5;9C:H<995F@=9GHA5H9F=5@G=BH<9

 85H9G 5GG9A6@98 6M /=@AG<IFGH et al 5 ,<9G9
85H9G K9F9 G9@97H98 5G =B8=75HCFG C: <IA5B 57H=J=HM 5B8
5F;I56@M F9DF9G9BH H<9 :I@@ H9ADCF5@ F5B;9 C: 57H=J=H=9G
F9@=56@M7C@@97H986M5F7<59C@C;=GHG
,<9 8=GD5F=HM 69HK99B H<9 95F@=9GH F9@=56@9 =B8=75HCF C:
<IA5B57H=J=HM5B8H<9)C@MB9G=5B7C@CB=N5H=CB9J9BH75B69
9GH=A5H986M588=B;5 H<=F8D9F=C8 HC9=H<9F CF5B8
DCDI@5H=B; =H K=H< CB9CF ACF9

 5;9 89H9FA=B5H=CBG "B
H<=G75G9H<9AC89@K5G5I;A9BH986M/?=G
H<9C@89GH

5;989H9FA=B5H=CB=BH<9ACGH F9@=56@9 7@5GG
9GH56@=G<98 6M H<9 7<FCBCA9HF=7 <M;=9B9 DFC798IF9
/=@AG<IFGH et al 5 ,56@9 + G99 ,56@9  "H =G 5
D=979C:75F6CB=N98:9FB75I89L7C@@97H98:FCA9L75J5H=CBG
5H+=H9=B5G5B88IB9B95FH<9ACIH<C:)C@C@I.5@@9M
$C<5@5!5K5=R="G@5B8=9@85B8 F5J9G
β
DF9
α
57H=J=HM
θ
β
57H=J=HM

,<9F9GI@HG C:75@=6F5H=CBK=H< 5@ I7?et al 
=B8=75H9H<5H65G98CBH<9AC89@5B885H5C:5B8H<9
!)F9;=CB:CFH<98=GD5F=HM69HK99BH<97C@CB=N5H=CB
9J9BH 5B8 H<9 :=FGH 5F7<59C@C;=75@ 9J=89B79 C: <IA5B
57H=J=HM=G QM95FG H<9!) F9;=CB=G Q
M95FG=;left

=;IF9
+HF5H=;F5D<=75@@M
=BJ9FH98

85H9GHCD
75@=6F5H=CBK=H<CIH5
5M9G=5BAC89@
6CHHCA75@=6F5H=CB
K=H<H<95M9G=5B
AC89@C:
Lab. No. CRA θ Material
Human activity
/? P  7::9FB75I89L
O18, Layer III
9H5 P  Dodonaea viscosa
9H5 P  Canthium odorata
9H5 P  )95F@G<9@@
9H5 P  )95F@G<9@@
9H5 P  )95F@G<9@@
,56@9

85H9G:CF<IA5B57H=J=HM5B8%5M9F"""5H(
+CIF79G/?=9@85B8 F5J9GCH<9FGM9
5B8)5BH5@9C
)9F<5DGH<9ACGHDF57H=75@IG9GC:5B8K=@@69HC
GIDD@M5B95F@M6CIB8:CF5M9G=5B75@=6F5H=CBGC:7I@HIF5@
57H=J=HM 9GD97=5@@M 5H DCH9BH=5@@M 95F@M G=H9G ,<9 9@@CKG
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9GH=A5H9<5G5B9::97HCBH<99GH=A5H985;9:CF9GH56@=G<A9BH
C:(5B8HC9GH=A5H9H<9<=5HIG69HK99BH<97C@CB=N5H=CB
9J9BH 5B8 9GH56@=G<A9BH C: H<9 G=H9 ,<=G 75B 69
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K<=7< 89:=B9G 5 B9K D9F=C8 K=H< 5B 95F@M 6CIB85FM α
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G=H9,56@9-G=B;5B875@=6F5H=B;K=H<5@M=9@8G5
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,<9 G@=;<H 8=::9F9B79G 69HK99B H<=G 9GH=A5H9 5B8 H<9
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H<9GHC7<5GH=7B5HIF9C:H<975@=6F5H=CBDFC79GGH<99GH=A5H9
C:G=H99GH56@=G<A9BHK5GBCH7<5B;986MH<9B9K9GH=A5H9
C:H<97C@CB=N5H=CB9J9BHB9GH=A5H9C:H<9<=5HIG69HK99B
H<97C@CB=N5H=CB9J9BH5B89GH56@=G<A9BHC:(=GQ
M95FGIG=B;H<9!)=;right
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Discussion
,<9 9GH=A5H9G C: )C@MB9G=5B 7C@CB=N5H=CBDFC8I798 6M H<9
5M9G=5B75@=6F5H=CB5F965G98CB85H98A5H9F=5@G:FCAH<9
DF97C@CB=N5H=CB 5B8 DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CB D9F=C8G 5H98
A
5H9F=5@G :FCA H<9 DF97C@CB=N5H=CB D9F=C8 F97CJ9F98 6M
D
5@9C9BJ=FCBA9BH5@ =BJ9GH=;5H=CBG M=9@8 5 H9FA=BIG DCGH
EI9A :CF H<9 7C@CB=N5H=CB 9J9BH
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56G9BH8IF=B;H<9DF97C@CB=N5H=CBD9F=C85B8=BHFC8I798HC
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5GG=;B98 HC H<9 DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CB D9F=C8 ,<9M M=9@8 5
H9FA=BIG 5BH9 EI9A :CF H<9 7C@CB=N5H=CB 9J9BH ,<9
5M9G=5B 75@=6F5H=CB ;I=898 6M 5B 9LD@=7=H AC89@ H<5H
F9@5H9G H<9 85H98 9J9BHG HC H<9 5F7<59C@C;=75@ 9J9BHG C:
=BH9F9GH M=9@8G 5 DFC656=@=HM 8=GHF=6IH=CB H<5H =B8=75H9G BCH
CB@MK<9B!5K5=R=K5G7C@CB=N986M)C@MB9G=5BG6IH5@GC
H<9@9J9@ C: 7CB:=89B79 H<5H CB9 A=;<HF95GCB56@M <5J9 =B
H<99GH=A5H9
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CB5BC@8=BHFC8I798F5H6CB9:FCAH<9RK5)@5=B5B8H<9
CH<9F K=H<
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75@=6F5H=CBK=H<CIH H<9 F5H 6CB985H9M=9@8G5 7CBG9FJ5H=J9
9GH=A5H9C:H<9IB79FH5=BHM=BH<95B5@MG=GK=H<5!)
F9;=CB H<5H GD5BG 5@ACGH :=J9 79BHIF=9G ,<9 588=H=CB5@
=B:CFA5H=CB :FCA H<9 DCH9BH=5@@M DFC6@9A5H=7 C@8 F5H 6CB9
F98I79GH<9IB79FH5=BHMC:H<99GH=A5H9HCG@=;<H@MACF9H<5B
H<F9979BHIF=9GG75B69G99B6M7CAD5F=B;H<9G<5D9GC:
H<98=GHF=6IH=CBG =B =;IF9  H<9 8=::9F9B79=G DF=A5F=@M 5H
H<9@5H99B8C:H<99GH=A5H988=B;H<9F5H6CB985H9M=9@8G
5DFC656=@=HM8=GHF=6IH=CBH<5H=GB95F@MGMAA9HF=75@5FCIB8
=HG AC89 K=H<CIH H<9 G?9K=B; 5DD5F9BH =B H<9 DCGH9F=CF
DFC656=@=HMC: H<9 9GH=A5H9 65G98 GC@9@MCB :@CF5@ F9A5=BG
'CH9H<5HH<995F@M9B8C:H<98=GHF=6IH=CB7<5B;9GJ9FM@=HH@9
K=H< H<9 588=H=CB C: H<9 F5H 6CB9 85H9 5B8 H<5H H<9 HKC
9GH=A5H9G<5J9J9FMG=A=@5FAC89G=BH<9@5H9H9BH<79BHIFM
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588=H=CBC:H<9 F5H 6CB9 85H9 K=H<CIH AI7< 7<5B;9 =B H<9
79BHF5@ H9B89B7M C: H<9 8=GHF=6IH=CB G<CI@8 <C@8 ACF9
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69HK99B7C@CB=N5H=CB
65G98CB5B8
CH<9F9J9BHGC:
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D5F5A9H9FG C: H<9 AC89@ 5F9 GD97=:=98 5B8 75B 69
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BH9FFC;5H988=F97H@MCAD5F=B;H<995F@=9GH85H989J=89B79
:CF 5 J5F=9HM C: )C@MB9G=5B=BHFC8I798 A5H9F=5@G GIDDCFHG
HF58=H=CB5@ <=GHCF=75@ 577CIBHG C: DCGH7C@CB=N5H=CB
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kukui HF995B8H<9)C@MB9G=5BF5H
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J9FM GCCB H<9F95:H9F ,<9 CH<9F =BHFC8I798 D@5BHG Q GK99H
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C::9FGCA9GIDDCFH:CF F99BSG<MDCH<9G=GH<5HGK99HDCH5HC
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,<9G9 F9GI@HG 5F9 <95J=@M 89D9B89BH CB H<9 :9K
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85H98)C@MB9G=5B=BHFC8I7H=CBGA=;<HK9@@M=9@8C@89F85H9G
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G<CFH@=J98 =BHFC8I798 A5H9F=5@ :CF 85H=B; K<9B9J9F
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G=;B=:=75BH H<5H F5H 6CB9G :FCA H<9 @CK9GH @9J9@G C: H<9
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8=::=7I@H HC :=B8 GC H<5H 5F7<59C@C;=GHG G<CI@8 9LD97H 5
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57HI5@@MF9:@97HH<9H9ADCF5@F5B;9C:7CB:=89BH@M=89BH=:=98
<IA5B 57H=J=HM =B !5K5=R= &I@FCCB9M et al 
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