A Model-based Age Estimate for Polynesian Colonization of Hawaiʻi

A model-based Bayesian calibration using ¹⁴C data from paleoenvironmental cores and materials introduced to the islands by Polynesian colonists estimates that the islands were likely colonized sometime late in the first millennium AD. Two calibrations, one using ¹⁴C dates on floral materials and the other using ¹⁴C dates on floral and faunal materials, indicate that archaeological materials yield relatively imprecise estimates of the colonization event with 95% highest posterior density regions 3-5 centuries long. Materials introduced to the islands by Polynesians date to two periods, one that coincides with the colonization event, and another some 3-6 centuries later. A possible disparity between colonization and the first reliably dated archaeological evidence of human activity is identified and estimated to be 1-4 centuries long.

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